Paragraph - Chapter 24 - Meeting with the Shadowling

I had a lot of fun with Chapter 24.  There are a lot of things "happening" in this chapter.  Again, it took me weeks to write these 4 or 5 pages.  One of he concepts that I wanted to introduce was the Black Swan idea.  Now, readers should know that I am by no means an expert in the theory.  I am just one person that happened upon Taleb's work and found it not only interesting but relevant to the Chronicles. 

I am going to quote from Wikipedia on this: "The Black Swan Theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. "


     "The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
          1.  The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.
          2.  The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
          3.  The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs."  

Okay, having quoted from Wikipedia and hopefully not misspelling the quote :)  how does this even vaguely relate to this chapter. 

Well....The black swan event in the Chronicles is the arrival of the Shadowling.  Who could have predicted that????   Whatever the World of the Humans, Medelia, is or isn't, the world certainly did not have the arrival of the Shadowling on "its radar screen."  So, that's the first part of the Black Swan Theory (the surprise)

 The second part of the theory is "has a major effect"...well, the arrival of the Shadowling certainly has a major effect.  Remember now, that I gave away the Shadowling's real purpose (although I wasn't originally going to do that) The Shadowling represents "struggle."  And who could argue against the idea that "the arrival of struggle in the world" is not a major event that will have major effects !!!

Now, the third part of the explanation of the Black Swan Theory is, for me, the most fascinating as it relates to the Shadowling.  The third part is : "is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."

(more on this in the next post ---------you'll love this part)

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